NBA Playoffs Down To The Final Four; Eastern Conference Finals Analysis And Prediction

playoffs2014

The conference finals are all set up and chalk has held up as the top two seeds in each conference have survived and advanced to the NBA’s Final Four. Let’s take a look at the Eastern Conference Finals match-up with the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Atlanta Hawks.

Eastern Conference Finals (seed): (2) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (1) Atlanta Hawks. ATL won season series 3-1

i

Atlanta Hawks

How They Got Here: Atlanta knocked off the Washington Wizards in six games (ATL won series 4-2) in a tough Eastern Conference Semifinals series. They survived a couple buzzer beaters from Paul Pierce in Game 3 [Pierce Banks In Game Winner At Buzzer To Give Wizards 2-1 Edge In Series Against Hawks] , and at the end of Game 6 when his 3 pointer at the buzzer was waved off by the referees because it came after the game clock reached triple zeroes, giving the game and series to the Hawks.

With their series win over the Wizards, the Atlanta Hawks have reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in team history, and to move to the next round they’ll have to knock off the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have been in this position before a few times, with the last time coming in 2009.

Keys To The Series: If Jeff Teague and Dennis Schröder can get to the middle of the floor, the Hawks should be able to get great shots either at the rim or from their three-point shooters. Schröder averaged 6.3 assists in just 19.1 minutes per game against Cleveland this season. The Cavaliers lost three-point shooting, floor spacing, and defensive rebounding when Kevin Love suffered a shoulder injury. However, in adding Tristan Thompson to the starting lineup, the Cavs have added an elite offensive rebounder. Atlanta has to box him out and eliminate second chances.

Much like in the series against Brooklyn, the Hawks have a sizable speed advantage at the center position. Atlanta can make Timofey Mozgov uncomfortable if they pick up the tempo in transition with Al Horford and Paul Millsap running rim to rim. Another way to neutralize Mozgov is to attack the rim and attempt to get him in foul trouble. Also, Cleveland will do everything they can to keep the ball out of Kyle Korver’s hands, but the more shots he gets, the more consistent his feel will be with shooting the basketball.

A key to one of Atlanta’s wins over Cleveland was their defense and playing the passing lanes. The Hawks were eager to send two defenders at ball handlers, and were still smart enough to make the correct rotations to get back into place when the Cavs made good passes. An aggressive defensive approach will minimize field goal percentage allowed, force turnovers, and eat up time on the shot clock. I’m sure they know they will not be able to stop LeBron James and a healthy Kyrie Irving, but if the Hawks play great team defense, and rebound effectively, they can limit production of the Cavs’ role players.

i (1) Cleveland Cavaliers

How They Got Here: The Cleveland Cavaliers have overcome some significant injuries and suspensions to advance to this Eastern Conference Finals series. They lost their All-Star forward, Kevin Love, in the first round of the playoffs against the Boston Celtics where he dislocated his shoulder, ultimately had surgery, and was ruled out of the entire playoffs as his injury needs about four to six months to recover. The Cavs were also without reserve guard J.R. Smith, who was suspended for the first two games of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series against the Chicago Bulls as a result of him punching Jae Crowder of the Celtics in their first round series. Kyrie Irving also has been banged up with tendonitis in his left knee, as well as a right foot strain he suffered in their last series win against the Bulls.

Even with those losses of key players and the physical ailments to Irving, the Cavs have managed to navigate their way through the playoffs, led by undoubtedly the best player in the world at the current moment, all-everything LeBron James. The Cavs swept the Boston Celtics in the first round (Cavs won series 4-0), and then won a very tough and physical Eastern Conference Semifinal series against the Chicago Bulls in six games (Cavs won series 4-2).

Keys To This Series: The role players will be key they must step up if the Cavs want to advance to the NBA Finals for the second time in franchise history (2007). Tristan Thompson and Matthew Dellavedova were fantastic in the Chicago series. Thompson’s play in the post and his offensive rebounding, along with Dellavedova’s scoring and the defense he played on Derrick Rose were definite factors in the Cavs winning that series, especially in the close out game. J.R. Smith also came up big with his shooting and surprisingly his defense because he is definitely not known for his defensive play.

Everyone knows what to expect from LeBron, and with Kyrie being limited, it will have to be by committee where the Cavs will need to pick up the slack. Iman Shumpert will have to be locked in defensively as I can see the Cavs matching him up with Kyle Korver. If that’s the case, Shumpert will have to literally be on Korver’s hip and keep a tracking device on him wherever he goes because Korver is looking to bounce back from not having a great playoffs, and if Shumpert can keep him in check, that can have a resounding effect on this series.

Even though Cleveland lost three of the four meetings against Atlanta during the season, they are still riding the confidence of eliminating a very tough Chicago team, all while being without one of their all-star players and another all-star player being hampered with injuries. They also know their team during those four meetings against Atlanta is completely different from the one that has been pushing through these playoffs. They have won three games in a row, and will look to continue their hot streak.

Prediction: Cleveland in six games (4-2). It will be too much LeBron James and company for the Hawks to overcome that will ultimately decide this series. 

Game 1 of this best of seven series is tomorrow night in Atlanta, 8:30 PM ET on TNT.

4 thoughts on “NBA Playoffs Down To The Final Four; Eastern Conference Finals Analysis And Prediction

  1. The Cavs are going to be everyone’s pick for a few reasons, but mostly because many people (read: non-Atlantans) would rather see LeBron take the Cavs to the Finals, and the Hawks haven’t been very consistent with their brand of play during their first two series. However, I think there’s a strong chance we’re going to see the Hawks get their groove back in game 1 or game 2, and here’s why: (1) The pressure is off. We may be the #1 seed, but we’re playing stacked odds statistically and we’re further than we’ve ever been since 1970. The Hawks have shown that they play their best ball when they don’t have anything to lose. No one in Atlanta could/would blame the Hawks for losing this series, and I think that makes them much more dangerous to the Cavs than they were to the Nets/Wiz in those series. (2) We have home court advantage. Combined with the last point, a potential 2-0 lead early in the series might not scare a playoff veteran like LeBron, but how his team and city react could play a big role in the remaining 2 to 4 games of the series. If the Hawks can take advantage of the first two games being in Atlanta and keep a consistently high level of performance in Cleveland, I think you could see the Hawks take the series in at least 7.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. I partially agree. LeBron going back to Cleveland has been one of the main stories the entire season. It was a feel good story of going back home and taking the home town team to an NBA title. The Hawks however, have become a feel good story this season surprising everyone by winning 60 games, and earning the number one seed in the conference and the second best record in the NBA. I believe the pressure is still on the Hawks because of their record, their record against Cleveland, and the fact that Cleveland is without Kevin Love and a limited Kyrie Erving.

    The Hawks haven’t been playing well in these playoffs and it’s hard for a team to just turn it on in the middle of the playoffs. With the set of matchups in this series though, the Hawks might have favorable advantage.

    To your point about home court advantage, that may be a factor in favor of the Hawks, but I believe if they lose one in Philips Arena, then this series will be over. They have to hold serve on their home court. If Cleveland somehow gets a game in Atlanta, Cleveland will get to the NBA Finals.

    Like

  3. […] How They Got Here: After winning a franchise and league best 67 games, and sweeping their first round series against the New Orleans Pelicans, the Warriors were faced with real adversity in the Western Conference Semifinals against the Memphis Grizzlies. After dominating the Grizzlies in Game 1, Golden State fell in Game 2 thanks to the play of Mike Conley, who returned from an eye injury, and as a result of implementing their classic grind-it-out game, Memphis made the Warriors look very out of sorts. In Game 3, things didn’t get better, and for a while it looked as if the Warriors did not have the tools to make the necessary adjustments and persevere through the challenges they were facing at the hands of Memphis [Memphis Grizzlies Up 2-1 On Golden State ; Should Warriors Hit Panic Button?]. […]

    Like

Leave a reply to Sports Talk With Dāvon Cancel reply